Faculty discussion on Ukraine: International Relations, Economics, and Energy Security.

The Faculty of Social Studies held a public debate regarding the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, with a focus on International Relations, Economics, and Energy Security.

Martin Chovančik, from the Department of International Relations and European Politics, moderated the discussion.

One of the speakers, Petra Kuchynkova from the Department of International Relations and European Studies talked about the role of the EU in this conflict and said that compared to the 2014 crisis, the EU seems more united and decisive, stressing that while there are divisions between member states, it looks like there is a united position. Kuchynkova also noted that the EU was quick to react to the massacres in Bucha. When asked about the realistic possibility of Ukraine joining the EU in the near future, Kuchynkova sees a complicated picture, as this is one of the topics that seems to divide the EU member states.

But what most EU countries can agree on is the necessity for a more open approach towards Ukraine, an opinion that is also shared by the newly elected Prime Minister of the Czech Republic – Petr Fiala.

Speakers also touched on Russia’s position regarding Ukraine’s accession in the EU.

Although some comments have been made from the Russian side, saying that Ukraine joining the EU would be acceptable, later remarks from various Russian officials contradict this stance.

Kuchynkova said that the accession process could also be affected by the outcomes of the war, specifically the size of the Russia-controled area within Ukraine.

But the hurdles on Ukraine’s way to the EU aren’t just connected to Russia and the war, there are also internal obstacles within the EU. According to Kuchynova, the EU would have to make some serious changes to its financial instruments, internal policies, and institutional structures if Ukraine is going to be joining the Union.

Vladan Hodulák talked about the realistic effects that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia from all across the globe could have on the country.

Hodulak believes that while in the long run, Russia will be able to bounce back and continue its economic activity, the sanctions will definitely create problems in the short term, on a micro-level. According to Hodulak, The Russian economy is dependent on western technology and it seems like the country is trying to reorient its purchases from the EU to China and has been somewhat successful. Russia has a lot of natural resources but it can’t use them without Western technology. But still, Hodulak noted that the Russian economy is not that dependent on the West and that the Russian balance of trade is positive and has been growing for years.

“Sanctions will make this process more complicated but they have enough cash flow to overcome the crisis. “ - said Hodulak.

According to Hodulak, the biggest potential problem for the Russians was the massive panic, but they managed to prevent it.

Hodulak noted that the inflation that European countries have been suffering from so far is mostly driven by resources, gas, oil, and by lack of certain natural resources, but the Russian inflation is largely due to the devaluation of the Russian ruble.

“All the drivers of inflation that we have here in Europe are absent in Russia because they can basically set the price of oil and food for domestic consumers. “- noted Hodulak.

The issues related to energy efficiency and the energy alternatives were discussed by Jan Osicka, who stated that the critical factor in deciding whether or not European countries will continue to purchase gas and oil from Russia will be the brutality of the war.

According to Osicka, these situations are followed by price spikes, which prompt companies and industries to switch from expensive choices to cheap options, which in this case would be energy efficiency and renewable energy initiatives. We will likely see a clear push toward renewable energy.

Osicka noted that halting all fossil fuel imports from Russia would damage Europe much more than it would Russia, which makes it a self-defeating quest.

“Russia has already amassed a large number of reserves, and in this season only, due to the price spikes in natural gas that date back to October 2021, they earned as much money from selling gas only as they earned in previous 15 years, so they are flooded with cash right now and they have nothing to spend it on. They are not going to buy stuff from Europe…” noted Osicka.

According to the speakers, the consequence of the war will be felt across European societies a bit later and we will start to see businesses going bankrupt, radicalization frustration, energy poverty, and so on, but it will take time to see how big of a problem this will be.

The discussion was held in our faculty atrium and was open to both students and the general population. It is available to watch on the faculty youtube channel.

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