Embracing the Darkness : Methods for Tackling Uncertainty and Complexity in Environmental Disaster Risks



Rok publikování 2021
Druh Článek v odborném periodiku
Časopis / Zdroj Global Environmental Politics
Fakulta / Pracoviště MU

Fakulta sociálních studií

www https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/glep_a_00591#authorsTabList
Doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00591
Klíčová slova environmental disasters; scenarios; wargaming; uncertainty; climate change
Přiložené soubory
Popis Environmental systems are complex and often difficult to predict. The interrelationships within such systems can create abrupt changes with lasting impacts, yet they are often overlooked until disasters occur. Mounting environmental and social crises demand the need to better understand both the role and consequences of emerging risks in global environmental politics (GEP). In this research note, we discuss scenarios and simulations as innovative tools that may help GEP scholars identify, assess, and communicate solutions to complex problems and systemic risks. We argue that scenarios and simulations are effective at providing context for interpreting “weak signals.” Applying simulations to research of complex risks also offers opportunities to address otherwise overwhelming uncertainty.
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