From Duverger to the Seat Product : Seeking a Pattern in Experts’ Evaluation of Electoral Systems

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NEMČOK Miroslav

Rok publikování 2020
Druh Článek v odborném periodiku
Časopis / Zdroj Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
Fakulta / Pracoviště MU

Fakulta sociálních studií

Citace
www https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/17457289.2019.1697880
Doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2019.1697880
Klíčová slova electoral systems; experts; theoretical expectations; fragmentation; Seat Product
Popis Widely influential Duverger’s “law” and “hypothesis” describe the main direction of influence of electoral rules on party systems, however, their formulations are quite blurry what makes their application to concrete electoral results often ambiguous. Therefore, this research conducted an original survey among electoral experts (n=131) to explore whether they apply Duverger’s rule in a consistent pattern which could lead to its less ambiguous specification. Experts’ responses revealed a considerable heterogeneity which indicates that they are often unsure about the likely outcomes of electoral systems. Nevertheless, experts were on average close to the central tendency predicted by the Seat Product Models (Taagepera, 2007) which quantifies the Duverger’s rule. Hence, experts on average think that election outcomes should look like what Seat Product Models predict. Therefore, the Models should be used as a baseline in electoral studies, because they allow more fine-grained evaluation of electoral systems.
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